Lakers vs. Warriors odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, MLK Day predictions from model on 67-38 roll

by 24USATVJan. 19, 2021, 7 a.m. 29

LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers welcome Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors to STAPLES Center on Monday evening. The Western Conference rivals will meet up in the final game of the NBA's very busy MLK Day schedule. The Lakers have won five in a row, improving to 11-3 overall. Golden State is 6-6 this season, though the team has been far better since an 0-2 start.

Tip-off is schedule for 10 p.m. ET. The latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Los Angeles as an 8.5-point favorite. The over-under for total points expected is set at 227. Before making any Warriors vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 67-38 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,500 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Warriors. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Warriors vs. Lakers:
• GSW: The Warriors are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
• LAL: The Lakers are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Warriors can cover

The Warriors are dangerous offensively, particularly with Curry on the floor. The former MVP is averaging 28.4 points, 6.2 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game, and he is a constant threat as arguably the best perimeter shooter in NBA history. Golden State also shares the ball at a high level, ranking in the top five of the league with a 64.3 percent assist rate, and the Warriors are a top six team in free throw creation rate.

The Warriors also do well in the turnover battle, turning the ball over on only 14.3 percent of possessions and ranking in the top 10 of the league in forcing a turnover on 15.4 percent of defensive trips. Golden State is also well above-average in shooting efficiency allowed, yielding a 52.4 percent effective field goal mark, and the Warriors are allowing only 43.5 points per game in the paint, a top-eight figure in the NBA this season.

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they face a Warriors team that can be slowed. Los Angeles currently leads the league in defensive rating, giving up only 1.04 points per possession, and Golden State's offensive rating lands in the bottom tier. The Warriors are scoring only 1.064 points per possession this season, and Golden State struggles to generate offensive rebounds, pulling down only 23.2 percent of their own shots.

The Warriors also struggle on the defensive glass, posting a 71.4 percent defensive rebound rate, and the Lakers could take advantage using their top-10 offensive rebounding attack. Curry is a constant source of worry for any opposing defense, but Los Angeles is elite in defensive rebounding, foul avoidance, blocked shots and shooting efficiency allowed. That formula should be effective in this matchup at home.

How to make Lakers vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the teams projected to combine for 221 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Warriors vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.


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