Packers vs. Saints Week 3 odds, picks: Point spread, player props and best bets for 'Sunday Night Football'

by 24USATVSept. 28, 2020, 2 a.m. 46
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The Green Bay Packers travel down to New Orleans, as they will look to build on their 2-0 against the Saints on "Sunday Night Football." The Packers have been the most explosive offensive team in the NFL so far this season, as they average 505 yards of total offense per game and have scored a league-leading 85 points. Maybe last year's 13-3 campaign wasn't a fluke, and Matt LaFleur is indeed an up-and-coming star in this league who knows how to get the most out of Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. He can further that narrative with a big win in primetime this week.

As for the Saints, they found no luck in Las Vegas earlier this week, as they were downed by the Raiders, 34-24. While New Orleans scored the first 10 points of the game, Derek Carr led an incredible comeback and threw for 284 yards and three touchdowns. The performance the Saints' secondary had on Monday night is certainly not something that is going to stop Rodgers and Co., and Drew Brees is going to have to prepare for the possibility of a shootout. It also doesn't help that Michael Thomas is again out due to an ankle injury.

Below, we will get you caught up on the most intriguing betting angles to get you locked in before kickoff. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans, Louisiana)

TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)

Follow: CBS Sports App

The line reopened at Saints -4 on Sunday night after the Packers' victory over the Detroit Lions, but that line fell a full point after New Orleans' loss on Monday night. The juice was heavily on the Saints at -125 early on Sunday, so it's possible we see this line shift to Saints -3.5 before kickoff.

The pick: Packers +3. I feel as though the Saints' loss to the Raiders was fairly telling. Brees was unable to throw downfield, Emmanuel Sanders was inexplicably not a part of the game plan with Thomas out and the Saints racked up 10 penalties for a total of 129 yards. I'm not going to just take the points, I'm going to take the Packers to win outright.

This total opened at 51.5 and got as high as 54 early Tuesday, but by midday Tuesday it had dropped to 52. After moving to 52.5 on Wednesday and up to 53 on Saturday, it's back down to 52 as bettors can't decide which side to back with key injuries at receiver on both sides.

The pick: Over 52. The Saints lost to the Raiders 34-24 last week and the Packers have scored at least 42 points in each of their first two matchups. I'm going to bet the Over here and I'm pretty confident it will hit.

Rodgers is averaging three passing touchdowns per game, so I have faith he can throw at least two on Sunday night. He has yet to throw an interception this season and the Saints' secondary doesn't scare me, so I may bet the Under for picks thrown even with the high amount of juice.

Since the Packers are the highest-scoring team in the league, I'm going to throw money on both the Over on completions and attempts here. Brees had to keep the ball in the air on Monday night and completed 26 of 38 passes. I also think I'm going to take a flier on Brees to throw at least one interception at +120.

Other props to consider

Alvin Kamara total receptions: Over 5.5 (-140). Brees was virtually unwilling to throw the ball down the field against the Raiders last week, and the absence of Thomas definitely had something to do with that. As a result, Kamara caught nine passes for 95 yards and I think we could see a similar stat line on Sunday night.

Mason Crosby total made extra points: Over 2.5 (+100). Crosby has made all nine of his extra-point attempts this season; this prop basically is just whether the Packers score three touchdowns on Sunday night. I'm going to say yes.

Team with most punts: Saints +160. Thomas Morstead has punted a total of nine times this season (tied for third-highest) while J.K. Scott has punted just four times (tied for second-lowest). The Packers offense has just been more effective so far, and +160 is nice value, though we do take a loss if the teams end up tied due to this being a three-way bet.

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